stabilizing, rising public-sector abandonments point to growing fiscal pressure.
Bottom line: 2026 is shaping up as a transitional year.
Strategic investment, policy certainty and labor stabilization will be critical to sustained growth in the years ahead.
ConExpo-Con / Agg 2026, owned and produced by AEM, will showcase many of the innovations shaping those trends.
With more than 2,000 exhibitors and thousands of new products and technologies, the show is a key barometer of where the industry is headed, from smarter machines and emerging digital tools to solutions for workforce shortages, sustainability and productivity.
The technologies debuting at ConExpo-Con / Agg in March 2026 highlight opportunities for contractors of all sizes.
Steel Construction
The American Institute of Steel Construction( AISC) is a non-profit technical institute that partners with the architecture, engineering and construction community to develop safe, efficient steel specifications and codes while also driving innovation.
Brian Raff, AISC vice president of government affairs and sustainability, shares his perspective on 2026:
Analysts expect moderate growth in overall non-residential construction in 2026, although the projected growth rate is slightly slower than the 2025 forecast, according to Dodge Construction Network.
Dollar value: Total non-residential construction value is forecast to expand by 3 % in 2026, to $ 481 billion, down slightly from the 4 % forecast for 2025.
However, another projection suggests only 2 % growth for the nonresidential total in 2026, following 2.6 % growth in 2025.
Square footage: The building footprint is projected to expand by 3 % in 2026, a significant improvement after an expected 2 % decline in 2025. I think this is due to recovery in the commercial sector.
Growth in commercial construction should become more diversified in 2026,
Everyone expects work on data centers and their power providers to remain busy in 2026.
with retail, warehouse and hotel activity all expected to pick up.
This is contrary to 2025, when those sectors were the most vulnerable to a pullback.
This commercial recovery is strong enough to drive the total non-residential footprint into positive territory, even though manufacturing square footage is expected to decline by 7 % in 2026.
Several economic and policy factors are poised to influence the industry in 2026.
Rate cuts and recovery: The anticipated recovery in smaller construction projects— including retail, warehouse and hotel sectors— will be supported by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The Fed has already cut interest rates twice in 2025, most recently in October.
There’ s a chance the Fed will cut rates again in December, which would certainly bolster real estate and construction loans.
Infrastructure certainty: The stability provided by the current law, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act( IIJA), supports growth.
There is a push to pass the next multi-year transportation bill before the September 2026 deadline to assure long-term funding.
Decreasing input costs: Material costs have dropped significantly, and lead times for both purchased and fabricated steel
2026 Outlook
are increasing more slowly. That may aid project delivery.
Here are some of the key challenges and headwinds we might face in 2026.
Credit crunch: The biggest constraint on new lending for smaller commercial projects is a credit crunch.
Many banks have tightened standards for commercial real estate loans for seven straight quarters, according to the Fed’ s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey( SLOOS).
Manufacturing pullback: The massive recent growth in the manufacturing sector is expected to reverse sharply in 2026, creating a significant drag on construction starts.
Office market valuation crisis: Significant losses in the value of office properties are freezing all new lending for smaller commercial projects. Labor: Skilled labor shortages pose persistent challenges. Here are some places growth is expected. Data centers: They are expected to see significant growth in 2026 and are a primary driver of the commercial sector.
Institutional sector: Forecast to rebound strongly with 6 % growth to $ 244 billion in 2026, following 1 % growth in 2025.
Commercial total: Growth is projected to accelerate to 7 %( to a total of $ 195 billion) as the market diversifies.
Hotels, retail and warehouses: Expected to begin recovery in 2026, contributing to commercial growth.
Health and education: Health construction is projected to grow 3.8 % and education 3.7 %. What sectors are expected to decline? Manufacturing: Projected to see a significant pullback, with dollar value declining 24 % to $ 42 billion as large projects conclude and trends normalize.
Traditional office construction: This sector faces continued headwinds due to evolving workplace trends. Here are expected trends for 2026. Normalization of project size: The current market is heavily skewed toward mega projects( like data centers and
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